Vaata esmaspäev, 13 november 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 318 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Nov 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours.
The largest flare event was a C2 at 1211Z which was not observed
optically. Region 9227 (S11W14) continues to grow slowly and
produced a C2/Sf flare at 1630Z. Two new regions rotated into view
today: Region 9231 (S23E72) and Region 9232 (N26E76). Both appear to
be moderate-sized D-type sunspot groups.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from any of regions 9227, 9231, or 9232.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind continues to show a high-speed solar wind
stream, but the average interplanetary Bz magnetic field component
has been weakly positive. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 08/2350z and reached a maximum of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600Z
ended today at 13/0745Z. The flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at
GOES has been at high levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days and is
expected to be quiet to unsettled by the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Novkuni 16 Nov
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Nov 144 Prognoositud 14 Nov-16 Nov 145/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 13 Nov 171
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/021 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Nov kuni 16 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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