Vaata reede, 13 oktoober 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 287 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Oct 2000 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels.
The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated
subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region
9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or
halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous
C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the
remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65)
at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no
notable activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from
regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock
passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was
observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major
storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC.
Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing
chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with
the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Octkuni 16 Oct
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Oct 168 Prognoositud 14 Oct-16 Oct 180/195/205 90 päeva keskmine 13 Oct 178
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Oct 023/027 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Oct kuni 16 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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