Vaata arhiivi laupäev, 4 märts 2000

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 064 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 MAR 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8882 (S15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C6/SF AT 03/2345Z. TWO NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS EMERGED: REGION 8899 (S11E19) AND REGION 8900 (S15E16). REGION 8900 SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES. THE GROUP DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL, D-TYPE REGION BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8891 (S15W29) IS STILL THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT SHOWED SIGNS OF DECAY AND WEAKENING MAGNETIC FIELDS. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N40W36 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0804-0900Z. X-RAY IMAGES FROM THE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT SHOWED AN ENHANCED LOOP SYSTEM FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE, SUGGESTING THAT A CME OCCURRED. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S35E50 DISAPPEARED AT ABOUT 1800Z. THIS DISAPPEARANCE WAS FOLLOWED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA RIBBONS, A WEAK X-RAY ENHANCEMENT, A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND A FAINT CME SIGNATURE AS OBSERVED BY THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE ERUPTION OF THE FILAMENT.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF REGIONS 8886 AND 8882 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT. REGION 8891 CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THE L1 POINT GAVE NO INDICATION OF RECENT FLARE-ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD FOLLOW ON THE SECOND DAY, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT, BUT DECREASING POSSIBILITY THAT A GLANCING BLOW FROM CME ACTIVITY OF 2 MARCH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 MARkuni 07 MAR
Klass M45%45%40%
Klass X15%10%05%
Prooton20%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       04 MAR 200
  Prognoositud   05 MAR-07 MAR  195/190/190
  90 päeva keskmine        04 MAR 170
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  015/018-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 MAR kuni 07 MAR
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%15%
Väike torm15%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%20%
Väike torm15%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%

<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele

Viimane uudis

Toeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!

Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!

11%

Fakte kosmose ilmast

Viimane X-loide:10 /09 /2017X8.2
Viimane M-loide:20 /10 /2017M1.0
Viimane geomagnetiline torm:26 /10 /2019Kp5 (G1)
Päikese plekivabade päevade arv 2020 -is:16
Viimane päikese plekivaba päev:23 /01 /2020

See päev ajaloos*

Päikesepursked ehk loited
12014M4.9
22014M3.6
32014M3.5
42014M2.6
52014M1.5
ApG
1200032G1
2199724G1
3200423G2
4199416
5200313
*alates 1994

Sotsiaalvõrgustikud