Vaata neljapäev, 27 jaanuar 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Jan 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 027 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 JAN 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8844 (N05W60)
IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS QUIET AND APPEARED TO BE IN
DECLINE. NEW REGION 8848 (S09E66) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A
SMALL, C-TYPE GROUP, AND NEW REGION 8846 (N37E39) EMERGED AS A
SMALL, HIGH LATITUDE A-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS
OBSERVED AT 1455 UT. SINCE THEN CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT ACE AT 1350Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
DENSITY FLOW WITH STRONGLY FLUCTUATING MAGNETIC FIELDS. SIMULTANEOUS
WITH THE SHOCK WAS A REVERSAL OF THE SPIRAL ANGLE (PHI) FROM TOWARDS
TO AWAY. AFTER 1830Z THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND TEMPERATURE BEGAN TO
RISE CONSIDERABLY AS DENSITY BEGAN TO FALL. THESE SIGNATURES ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG, CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF DAY ONE. CONDITIONS WILL
DECLINE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS BY THE
THIRD DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 JANkuni 30 JAN
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 JAN 132 Prognoositud 28 JAN-30 JAN 130/130/125 90 päeva keskmine 27 JAN 175
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN 020/025-020/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 JAN kuni 30 JAN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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