Vaata teisipäev, 19 oktoober 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Oct 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 292 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 OCT 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8732 (N22W52) AT 19/1941Z. THIS REGION
PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
REGION 8731 (N13W45) HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY , PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
MINOR SUBFLARES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRIGHT SURGING WAS OBSERVED
ON THE SE LIMB BETWEEN 19/0700 - 1000Z, A CME FROM THE SAME LOCATION
OCCURRED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEW REGION 8737 (S15E14) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY, IT MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. REGION 8732 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS
ACTIVITY. REGION 8737, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, WILL
SOON BECOME A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE AS A CORONAL HOLE
MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 OCTkuni 22 OCT
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 OCT 170 Prognoositud 20 OCT-22 OCT 170/165/160 90 päeva keskmine 19 OCT 159
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 010/008-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 OCT kuni 22 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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