Vaata esmaspäev, 18 oktoober 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Oct 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 291 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 OCT 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731
(N13W33) SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND REMAINED A LARGE,
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES
DURING THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE
REMAINING REGIONS AND NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8731, THOUGH RELATIVELY INACTIVE
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS, STILL APPEARS CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARE
PRODUCTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS
REGION AS WELL.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE
TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 OCTkuni 21 OCT
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 OCT 173 Prognoositud 19 OCT-21 OCT 170/170/165 90 päeva keskmine 18 OCT 158
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT 016/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT 008/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT 008/010-010/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 OCT kuni 21 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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