Vaata neljapäev, 14 oktoober 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 287 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 OCT 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED
AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS
CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE
DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS
QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF
THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM
WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 OCTkuni 17 OCT
| Klass M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 OCT 200 Prognoositud 15 OCT-17 OCT 200/200/200 90 päeva keskmine 14 OCT 156
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT 021/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT 020/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT 020/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 OCT kuni 17 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele
Viimane uudis
esmaspäev, 22 aprill 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
laupäev, 23 märts 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
kolmapäev, 20 märts 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Viimane foorumi postitus
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 74Space Weather Memes 338Unproven theories 340Filaments and prominences 55Growth of Cycle 25 433
Veel teemasidToeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!
Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!
Fakte kosmose ilmast
| Viimane X-loide | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Viimane M-loide | 24/04/2024 | M1.7 |
| Viimane geomagnetiline torm | 19/04/2024 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Plekivabasid päevi | |
|---|---|
| Viimane päikese plekivaba päev | 08/06/2022 |
| Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv | |
|---|---|
| märts 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Viimased 30 päeva | 129.9 +24.3 |