Vaata esmaspäev, 30 august 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Aug 30 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 242 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 AUG 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8681 (N21W16)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B AT 30/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II. THE GROWTH RATE SLOWED IN THIS REGION
BUT IT MAINTAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8674
(S24W50) PRODUCED A C9/1N AT 30/1448Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED
MODERATE DECAY IN SUNSPOT NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOTIFICATION
WAS RECEIVED OF A PARTIAL HALO CME EVENT WITH THE X1 FLARE AT
28/1805Z FROM REGION 8674. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MATERIAL WAS SEEN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC AND THE EVENT IS
DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THERE WAS A
HALO CME WITH THE M3 FLARE ABOVE FROM REGION 8681.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS
8674 AND 8681. X-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 BUT
THAT POSSIBILITY DECREASES AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 30/0800-1200Z INTERVAL. DURING THAT TIME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. RATHER, BZ TURNED
SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO THAT TIME WHILE OTHER SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS
REMAINED UNREMARKABLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 31 AUG. ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE PARTIAL HALO CME/X1 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. HAD THE CME BEEN
AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH, A MUCH LARGER STORM WOULD BE EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 01-02 SEP.
THE FORECAST FOR 02 SEP WILL BECOME ELEVATED IF NOTIFICATION IS
RECEIVED THAT THE M3/2B EVENT TODAY PRODUCED A HALO OR PARTIAL HALO
CME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT
DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 AUGkuni 02 SEP
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 AUG 198 Prognoositud 31 AUG-02 SEP 194/185/165 90 päeva keskmine 30 AUG 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 AUG kuni 02 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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