Vaata neljapäev, 22 juuli 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jul 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 203 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 JUL 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED FROM 21/2212Z TO
22/0013Z. REGION 8636 (N21E12) EXHIBITED CONTINUED GROWTH AND HAS
MAINTAINED A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REGION IS NOW A
CLASS F SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 45 SPOTS. REGION 8639
(N38W50) ALSO EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8643
(N21W62), CURRENTLY A BXO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 4
SPOTS, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 REMAINS VERY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
M-CLASS OR HIGHER EVENT. REGION 8639 ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE 22/0300-0600Z
PERIOD. THE INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED TO THE
HALO CME EARLY ON 19 JULY.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE
FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 JULkuni 25 JUL
| Klass M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 JUL 153 Prognoositud 23 JUL-25 JUL 160/165/170 90 päeva keskmine 22 JUL 154
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 009/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 024/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 010/010-008/007-008/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 JUL kuni 25 JUL
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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