Vaata teisipäev, 2 märts 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Mar 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 061 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 MAR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8475 (N31E03) PRODUCED A
C6/SN AT 02/1212Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8471 (N28W40)
GENERATED A MODERATE DURATION C6/1F AT 02/1519Z. FREQUENT SUBFLARES
OCCURRED IN SEVERAL REGIONS. REGIONS 8475 AND 8471 EXHIBITED SLIGHT
GROWTH AND LESSENED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH
DATA INDICATED SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE SHEAR IN EACH REGION. REGION
8476 (N18W09) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND THE EXISTENCE OF A
MULTI-STRAND ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEM BODES WELL FOR CONTINUED GROWTH.
NEW REGION 8479 (S14W17) WAS SPLIT OFF FROM REGION 8478 (S15W25).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND
8476 SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS PER DAY. ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8471 AND 8475. CONTINUED EMERGENCE
OF REGION 8476 COULD RESULT IN SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FROM
02/2100-02/0600Z. AFTERWARD, THE FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY WAS IN EXCESS OF 500 KM/S AND DENSITY WAS IN THE 3-4
P/CC RANGE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS AT
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 MARkuni 05 MAR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 MAR 130 Prognoositud 03 MAR-05 MAR 130/131/132 90 päeva keskmine 02 MAR 144
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAR 023/033 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAR 016/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAR-05 MAR 012/013-010/013-010/009
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 MAR kuni 05 MAR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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