Vaata reede, 22 jaanuar 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jan 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 022 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 JAN 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19W50)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF EVENT AT 22/1724Z. REGION 8440 AND REGION 8439
(S23W57) HAVE MAINTAINED BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS WITH
APPROXIMATELY 28 SPOTS IN EACH REGION. REGION 8444 (N19W14) HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT
GROWTH FROM A CSO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 7 SPOTS TO A DSO-BETA GROUP
WITH 10 SPOTS. NEW REGION 8447 (N19W20) IS A CSO-BETA GROUP WITH 6
SPOTS.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 22/1500-1800Z PERIOD. THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTONS STAYED ENHANCED, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD. A WEAK SHOCK WAS SEEN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AT
22/2000Z AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ACTIVITY ON 20
JANUARY.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED, OR INCREASE DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 JANkuni 25 JAN
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 JAN 178 Prognoositud 23 JAN-25 JAN 180/178/175 90 päeva keskmine 22 JAN 142
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN 014/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 JAN kuni 25 JAN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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