Vaata arhiivi pühapäev, 22 november 1998

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 22 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 326 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 NOV 1998

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W88) PRODUCED TWO X-CLASS FLARES AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB. THE FIRST WAS AN X3/1N AT 22/0642UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 340 SFU TENFLARE, A SIGNIFICANT TYPE II RADIO SWEEP, A MINOR TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE SECOND FLARE WAS AN X2/2N AT 22/1623UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THIS SUDDEN INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS WAS SURPRISING GIVEN THE STABILITY EXHIBITED BY REGION 8384 DURING RECENT DAYS. A OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 22/1839UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS APPEARED STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8384 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF VIEW. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SOLAR PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT WAS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHONOUS ALTITUDE FOLLOWING TODAY'S X3/1N FLARE. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0700UT, THEN RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1200UT. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0800UT AND WAS GRADUALLY DECLINING TOWARD BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, BARRING ANOTHER PROTON FLARE FROM REGION 8384.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 NOVkuni 25 NOV
Klass M70%50%30%
Klass X30%05%01%
Prooton20%10%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 NOV 126
  Prognoositud   23 NOV-25 NOV  120/120/125
  90 päeva keskmine        22 NOV 131
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  012/009-015/009-015/009
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 NOV kuni 25 NOV
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%30%30%
Väike torm05%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%40%40%
Väike torm05%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%05%05%

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