Vaata teisipäev, 17 november 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 321 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 NOV 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8383 (S14W43) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT: A C4/SF AT 16/2153Z. ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY WERE A C4 AT 16/2316Z, AND A C2
THAT LASTED 92 MINUTES FROM 0351-0523Z. REGION 8384 (S27W23)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE. TWO
FILAMENT ERUPTIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS: A 12 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR N31E20 BETWEEN 16/1842-17/0643Z AND AN 11 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S41W50 BETWEEN 17/1723-17/1857Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SECOND DAY, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO
MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 NOVkuni 20 NOV
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 NOV 121 Prognoositud 18 NOV-20 NOV 120/120/115 90 päeva keskmine 17 NOV 131
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 025/030-025/035-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 NOV kuni 20 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 55% | 55% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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