Vaata reede, 25 september 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Sep 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 268 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 SEP 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY 2 C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. NOTABLE ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8336
(S27W67), 8340 (N20W27) AND 8244 (S18W16), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED
OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. PERHAPS THE MOST DYNAMIC REGION WAS REGION 8346
(S30E27) WHICH PRODUCED A B7/SF AND WAS SHOWING PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS
AS WELL AS POINT BRIGHTENINGS OF NEAR FAINT FLARE INTENSITY FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WAS STABLE AND MOSTLY
QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8340, 8344 AND 8346 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
C-CLASS FLARES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THESE REGIONS COULD PRODUCE
AN ISOLATE M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT BOTH
MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. A GREATER THAN 10 PFU PROTON EVENT WAS
OBSERVED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BETWEEN 25/0010UT AND 25/0230UT.
THE MAXIMUM OF 44 PFU WAS OBSERVED AT 25/0130UT. THE GREATER THAN
2MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED THRESHOLD LEVELS AT
1605UT. THEY REACHED A PEAK AT AROUND 25/1830UT AND HAVE SINCE
DECLINED TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS WOULD BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OF 25
SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2MEV ELECTRONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DECLINE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 SEPkuni 28 SEP
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 SEP 139 Prognoositud 26 SEP-28 SEP 140/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 25 SEP 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 017/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 090/140 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 040/050-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 SEP kuni 28 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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