Vaata kolmapäev, 23 september 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Sep 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 266 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 SEP 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH DUE TO AN M6.9/3B FLARE THAT
OCCURRED IN REGION 8340 (N20W02) AT 23/0713UT. THIS WAS A LONG
DURATION EVENT THAT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II AND A TYPE IV SWEEP.
THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT A PROTON EVENT WAS ALSO GENERATED
DURING THIS ACTIVITY. REGION 8340 ALSO PRODUCED A C2 X-RAY FLARE AND
3 OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8344 (S20E09) WHICH PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 23/0038UT AND REGION 8343
(N38E13) WHICH PRODUCED A SINGLE OPTICAL SUB FLARE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8340 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONTINUED
C-CLASS FLARES AND A POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT RESULTING
FROM THE M6 FLARE AND THE ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS THAT
OCCURRED ON 23/0713. PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF THE PROTON EVENT IS EARLY
ON 24 SEPT AT AROUND 0300UT.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 SEPkuni 26 SEP
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 SEP 143 Prognoositud 24 SEP-26 SEP 150/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 23 SEP 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 020/020-040/040-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 SEP kuni 26 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 50% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 65% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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