Vaata esmaspäev, 24 august 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Aug 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 236 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 AUG 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8307 (N31E10)
PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 24/1525Z. REGION 8307 CONTINUED ITS DECLINE IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA AND BECAME MORE BIPOLAR MAGNETICALLY. PENUMBRAL
DECAY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION CAUSED THE DELTA
CONFIGURATION TO FADE. REGION 8309 (N16W38) GREW SLIGHTLY AND
EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8307 RETAINS THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT
POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECREASED TO APPROXIMATELY 430 KM/S FROM A HIGH OF NEAR 600 KM/S ON
23 AUG. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED TO
DECAY SLOWLY. FLUXES WERE NEAR 1 PFU.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 AUG IN
RESPONSE TO AN M9 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME EARLY ON 22 AUG. DURING
THE DISTURBANCE, MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED ON 27 AUG AS THE
DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. THE PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECLINE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 AUGkuni 27 AUG
| Klass M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 AUG 121 Prognoositud 25 AUG-27 AUG 120/120/120 90 päeva keskmine 24 AUG 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG 014/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG 010/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG 025/027-025/025-018/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 AUG kuni 27 AUG
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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