Vaata arhiivi laupäev, 13 juuni 1998

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 164 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 JUN 1998

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 0420Z. AN EXAMINATION OF GOES X-RAY DATA SHOWED THAT THIS LEVEL RESULTED FROM THE SUPERPOSITION OF A SHORT, IMPULSIVE 1N FLARE FROM REGION 8242 (S23E42) ON TOP OF A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT. THE LONG DURATION EVENT BEGAN AT ABOUT 03Z AND CONTINUED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. DURING THIS SAME INTERVAL A SERIES OF LASCO IMAGES (STARTING AT 0355 AND ENDING AT 0730Z) SHOWED TRANSIENT MATERIAL MOVING OFF OF THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8242 PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8237 (S24W08) PRODUCED A C-CLASS EVENT AT 1554Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA FLARE RIBBONS. NEW REGION 8245 (S19E15) EMERGED ON THE DISK AND SHOWED STEADY GROWTH. NEW REGION 8246 WAS ASSIGNED TO THE SPOTS THAT EMERGED NEAR N14W48, JUST EAST OF REGION 8234 (N16W57). REGION 8240 HAS NOW ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, WITH REGION 8242 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH 1927Z WHEN A WEAK (BUT NOT SUDDEN) IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON THE DAYSIDE MAGNETOMETERS. THE IMPULSE WAS PRECEDED BY COMPRESSION SIGNATURE AT ACE AT 1855Z. THE L1 DATA SHOWED MANY FEATURES SIMILAR TO A SHOCK (ENHANCED VELOCITY, DENSITY, TEMPERATURE AND MAGNETIC FIELDS), BUT CHANGED OVER A LONGER TIME INTERVAL THAN A TRUE SHOCK (ABOUT 5 MINUTES), SUGGESTING THAT L1 WAS EITHER ON THE FLANKS OF A FAST CME OR WAS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY SLOW CME. THE FORMER SEEMS MORE LIKELY, GIVEN THE CLEAR OBSERVATIONS OF TRANSIENT ACVITITY FROM THE EAST LIMB ON THE 11TH. THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS RESPONDED MILDLY BY INCREASING FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 JUNkuni 16 JUN
Klass M20%20%20%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       13 JUN 111
  Prognoositud   14 JUN-16 JUN  110/105/105
  90 päeva keskmine        13 JUN 110
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUN-16 JUN  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 JUN kuni 16 JUN
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%10%10%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne10%10%10%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele

Viimane uudis

Toeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!

Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!

100%

Fakte kosmose ilmast

Viimane X-loide:10 /09 /2017X8.2
Viimane M-loide:20 /10 /2017M1.0
Viimane geomagnetiline torm:26 /10 /2019Kp5 (G1)
Päikese plekivabade päevade arv 2019 -is:261
Praegused järjestikused päikeseplekkideta päevad:34

See päev ajaloos*

Päikesepursked ehk loited
12006X6.5
22006M6.0
32006M3.5
42003M2.0
52000M1.6
ApG
1200626G1
2199426G1
3200323G1
4201522
5200420
*alates 1994

Sotsiaalvõrgustikud