Vaata arhiivi kolmapäev, 6 mai 1998

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 May 06 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 126 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 MAY 1998

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8210 (S15W75) PRODUCED AN X2/1N FLARE AT 0809Z WHICH HAD VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED RADIO BURSTS AND A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. THE X2 WAS JUST PRECEDED BY AN M2 FROM THE SAME REGION AT 0725Z. REGION 8210 ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/2N FLARE AT 05/2346Z WHICH HAD ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEPS. LASCO OBSERVERS REPORTED THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DURING THE TIME PERIOD: THE FIRST WAS A PARTIAL HALO AT 0002Z AND COULD BE REASONABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M2/2N. THE SECOND WAS AT 0228Z FROM THE NORTH EAST AND APPEARS TO BE AN EVENT BEHIND THE LIMB. THE THIRD, SEEN AT 0829Z WAS A LARGE AND RELATIVELY FAST EVENT THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2 FLARE. REGION 8214 (N28W34) HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF FLARE PRODUCTION, BUT IT CONTINUES TO GROW IN COMPLEXITY AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY VERY HOT PLAGE. SOME OPPOSITE POLARITY FLUX IS EMERGING JUST WEST OF THE LEADER SPOT, AND THIS PART OF THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE THE 'HOT SPOT' IN THE REGION. REGION 8210 (S15W75) IS APPROACHING WEST LIMB, MAKING ANALYSIS MORE DIFFICULT. THERE MAY BE SOME REFORMING OF THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE LEADER SPOT. A 10 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N20W46 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 05/1130Z AND 06/0657Z.NEW REGION 8218 (S23E74) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE AXX SPOT GROUP.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR MORE MAJOR FLARES, PARTICULARLY FROM REGION 8210. REGION 8214 ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MAJOR FLARES OR PROTON EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 0835Z AND QUICKLY REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 210 PFU AT 0945Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTONS WERE ALSO ENHANCED AND REACHED EVENT LEVEL (GREATER THAN 1 PFU) AT 0830Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTONS REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.9 PFU AT 0840 AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD AT 1335Z. THIS PROTON EVENT SHOWED SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT ARE TYPICAL OF WELL-CONNECTED EVENTS. THE FLUX LEVELS WERE STEADILY DECLINING AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF EFFECTS FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF TODAY'S CME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8210. THE LATER CME WAS SUFFICIENTLY FAST THAT IT WILL VERY LIKELY OVERTAKE THE EARLIER CME. ARRIVAL OF THE SHOCK IS EXPECTED VERY LATE ON THE 7TH OR EARLY ON THE 8TH, AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MID-LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDES COULD HAVE PERIODS OF SEVERE STORM LEVELS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 09/1200Z, AFTER WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD CALM DOWN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 MAYkuni 09 MAY
Klass M75%75%65%
Klass X20%20%15%
Prooton20%20%15%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       06 MAY 130
  Prognoositud   07 MAY-09 MAY  130/125/125
  90 päeva keskmine        06 MAY 106
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY  023/036
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  010/020-045/050-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 MAY kuni 09 MAY
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%10%20%
Väike torm20%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm15%45%15%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%10%20%
Väike torm20%20%30%
Suur-tõsine torm15%50%35%

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