Vaata neljapäev, 30 aprill 1998 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 120 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 APR 1998

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S16E03) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. THIS REGION MAINTAINED SOME MIXED POLARITIES AND OVERALL WAS STABLE. THE TYPE IV RADIO BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE M6/3B FLARE ON 29 APR REMAINED IN PROGRESS THROUGH THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8210. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER X-CLASS EVENT BEFORE WEST LIMB TRANSIT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS BECOMING LESSENED AS THE REGION SIMPLIFIES MAGNETICALLY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL A 31 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 30/0933Z. THIS WAS PRECEDED BY A SHOCK PASSAGE AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 30/0845Z. AFTER THE SUDDEN IMPULSE, UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO BE RELATED TO THE X1/HALO CME OBSERVED ON 27 APR. A WEAK ENERGETIC PROTON (GT 10 MEV) ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT 30/0405Z. MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 2 PFU. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE M6/HALO CME OBSERVED ON 29 APR. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 01 MAY. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A LARGER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST FOR 02-03 MAY AS A RESULT OF M6/HALO CME OBSERVED YESTERDAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD DECAY TO BACKGROUND LEVELS IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 MAYkuni 03 MAY
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X10%10%10%
Prooton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       30 APR 103
  Prognoositud   01 MAY-03 MAY  104/106/108
  90 päeva keskmine        30 APR 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 APR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 APR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAY-03 MAY  020/018-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 MAY kuni 03 MAY
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%30%
Väike torm30%40%15%
Suur-tõsine torm15%20%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%30%
Väike torm40%45%15%
Suur-tõsine torm15%20%05%

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