Vaata kolmapäev, 29 aprill 1998 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Apr 29 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 119 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 APR 1998

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8210 (S16E19) PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M6/3B FLARE AT 29/1637Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST THAT REMAINED IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MODERATE SIZE FILAMENT IN THE REGION FADED WITH THE FLARE AND A LARGE HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS BY SOHO/LASCO SCIENTISTS, THIS HALO APPEARED TO PROPAGATE MORE DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH THAN THE HALO OBSERVED ON 27 APR. PRIOR TO THIS FLARE, REGION 8210 HAD PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN REGION 8210 FADED DURING THE PERIOD BUT SOME MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. WHITE LIGHT AREA REMAINED CONSTANT IN THIS SMALL REGION. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N27E60 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8214.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 8210 APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M AND SMALL X-CLASS EVENTS. OLD REGION 8194 IS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIMB DURING THE PERIOD, BUT AT THIS EARLY TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A POTENT FLARE PRODUCING REGION.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. AT PRESS TIME, THE EXPECTED SHOCK FROM THE X1/HALO CME OF 27 APR HAD NOT ARRIVED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BECOME DISTURBED ON 30 APR IN RESPONSE TO THE HALO CME OBSERVED ON 27 APR. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH ON 01-02 MAY. THUS, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS INTERVAL.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 APRkuni 02 MAY
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X15%15%15%
Prooton15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       29 APR 101
  Prognoositud   30 APR-02 MAY  101/104/108
  90 päeva keskmine        29 APR 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY  020/020-020/020-018/018
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 APR kuni 02 MAY
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%30%
Väike torm30%30%30%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%15%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%30%
Väike torm40%40%40%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%15%

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