Vaata teisipäev, 28 aprill 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Apr 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 118 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 APR 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY TO A VERY LOW
LEVEL. ONLY B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8210 (S17E31)
RETAINED ITS DELTA CONFIGURATION, DEVELOPED ADDITIONAL MIXED
POLARITIES, AND EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH. H-ALPHA FIBRIL AND VECTOR
MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE STRONG SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHERE THE
DELTA IS LOCATED. A FILAMENT IN THIS REGION FADED RAPIDLY BETWEEN
28/1851-1914Z. TWO SMALL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK NEAR S30W64 AND
S25E55 AND WERE NUMBERED AS REGIONS 8212 AND 8213 RESPECTIVELY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO
MODERATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8210 RETAINS THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ANOTHER SMALL X-CLASS EVENT. OLD REGION 8194
WILL BE RETURNING TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR S18 AROUND 01 MAY. THIS
REGION PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M1 FLARE ON 20 APR FROM SEVERAL DAYS
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB THAT RESULTED IN A LARGE SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT
EARTH. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE UPON THE RETURN OF THIS REGION.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD TO BELOW 400 KM/S INDICATING AN END OF
THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMINANTLY
HIGH.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL NEAR MIDDAY ON 29 APR WHEN A HALO CME
RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM THAT TIME AND THROUGH 30 APR.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. PREDOMINANTLY
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 01 MAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THE EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 APRkuni 01 MAY
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 APR 098 Prognoositud 29 APR-01 MAY 099/100/103 90 päeva keskmine 28 APR 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 APR 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 APR 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 APR-01 MAY 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 APR kuni 01 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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