Vaata reede, 24 aprill 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Apr 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 114 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 APR 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C8 X-RAY BURST
WAS DETECTED AT 24/0852Z. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE SE LIMB AT S34 WHICH BEGAN AT 24/0450Z.
THIS EPL ENDED AT 24/0940Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS
QUIET. NEW REGION 8210 (S19E70) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION WAS
THE SITE OF YESTERDAY'S CME ASSOCIATED WITH AN X1 FLARE, A LOOP
PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND NUMEROUS POINT BRIGHTENINGS. THE REGION
CONTAINS ONLY BRIGHT PLAGE AND ACTIVE SURGING AT THIS TIME, BUT
PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF SPOTS WERE RECEIVED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE AS REGION 8210 ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS AND M-CLASS ACTIVITY DURING
ITS TRANSIT OF THE DISK, AS WELL AS ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS SET IN ABOUT 23/1900Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHOCK
RESULTING FROM THE CME REPORTED ON 21 APRIL. THIS ACTIVITY LASTED
UNTIL 24/1500Z WHEN THE FIELD FINALLY SETTLED DOWN. THE GREATER THAN
10 MEV PROTON EVENT ENDED AT 24/1550Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THEN QUIET
TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY STILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 APRkuni 27 APR
| Klass M | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 APR 091 Prognoositud 25 APR-27 APR 094/094/096 90 päeva keskmine 24 APR 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR 027/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 APR kuni 27 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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