Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2017 Sep 25 0030 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity was at very low levels. Only a few low level B-class flares were produce by new Region 2682 (S09E71, Hsx/alpha). The largest was a B2 flare at 24/1122 UTC. Region 2681 (S13E19, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Pronóstico
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (25-27 Sep).

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 12,883 pfu at 24/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Pronóstico
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (25-26 Sep) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on day three (27 Sep) due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 320 km/s to near 420 km/s by periods end. Total field ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-9 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) until 24/1905 UTC when it switched into a negative (towards) sector.
Pronóstico
Solar wind parameters are expected to become weakly enhanced on days one and two (25-26 Sep) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. By mid to late on day three (27 Sep), solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced once more as a positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Pronóstico
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. By mid to late on day three (27 Sep), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias

Últimas noticias

Clima espacial de hoy

Actividad auroral Menor Importante
Altas latitudes 25% 50%
Medias latitudes 15% 1%
Kp previsto max 4
Actividad solar
llamarada solar clase M 15%
llamarada solar clase X 1%
B5.7
Fase de la luna
Creciente casi nueva

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Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X:10/09/2017X8.2
Último evento clase M:09/09/2017M1.1
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas:18/09/2017Kp5 (G1)
Número de días sin manchas en el año 2017:56
Último día sin manchas:01/08/2017

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12001M7.6
22011M7.4
32011M4.4
42011M3.7
52000M3.4
ApG
11998117G4
2200133G3
3200328
4201622
5200019
*desde 1994