Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2018 May 25 0030 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 2710 (N17E25, Axx/alpha) re-intensified just enough to reform an umbral spot in its trailing, positive polarity magnetic field. Despite the spot reemergence, the overall magnetic field gradient and shear remained very weak. This was, however, the source region for the largest flare of the period, a B9/Sf flare at 24/1230 UTC. Region 2711 (N06W41, Cai/beta) was in a decay phase early in the period, but underwent magnetic flux intensification as the period progressed and redevelopment of trailer and intermediate spots occurred. Even so, the regions magnetic gradient and shear were minor and it was inactive. Region 2712 (N13E75, Cso/beta) was assigned to an active region and associated spots that rotated onto the visible disk. The region produced multiple B-class enhancements and an optical subflare during the reporting period. No CMEs were observed in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.
Predicción
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a decreasing chance of C-class flares all three days (25-27 May) based on activity trends (persistence), and lack of magnetic shear and loose magnetic gradients in all three regions. Even though severe foreshortening prevents a more detailed analysis of region 2712 at this time, it seems likely from optical observatories reports and SDO/HMI imagery that the region may be a simple bipolar group; the low amount and level of flare activity seems to support this; and probabilities for this region were decreased slightly.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Predicción
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels again on day one (25 May) and increase to primarily moderate levels on days two and three (26-27 May) due to the recent influences of a CH HSS.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of an extension of the positive polarity, north polar CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from about 520 km/s to around 450 km/s. Total IMF strength was weak at 2 to 4 nT and only weak Bz deviations were observed. The phi angle was primarily positive, but underwent some oscillations into a negative sector.
Predicción
CH HSS influences are expected to continue waning on day one (25 May) and a return to a slow solar wind regime is anticipated for days two and three (26-27 May).

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Predicción
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet all three days (25-27 May) as CH HSS influences wane and solar wind conditions return to ambient, background-like conditions.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias

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