Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2017 Nov 18 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity was very low. Region 2687 (S08E24, Hax/alpha) was absent of significant flare activity and displayed slight decay. Region 2688 (N11, L=238) decayed to plage. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period.
Pronóstico
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring throughout the forecast period (18-20 Nov).

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,330 pfu at 17/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Pronóstico
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 18-20 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters indicated a disturbed solar wind environment. Wind speeds were steady, starting at approximately 450 km/s and ending near 420 km/s. Total field (Bt) peaked at 5 nT while the Bz component did not drop lower than -4 nT. Phi was primarily positive.
Pronóstico
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over the next three days (18-20 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. A waning trend is expected to transition into an additional enhancement on day two (19 Nov) due to the anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Pronóstico
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov). An increase to active levels is likely over days two and three (19-20 Nov) as another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias

Últimas noticias

Clima espacial de hoy

Actividad auroral Menor Importante
Altas latitudes 20% 15%
Medias latitudes 5% 1%
Kp previsto max 3
Actividad solar
llamarada solar clase M 1%
llamarada solar clase X 1%
Fase de la luna
Luna nueva

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Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X:10/09/2017X8.2
Último evento clase M:20/10/2017M1.0
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas:08/11/2017Kp6 (G2)
Número de días sin manchas en el año 2017:81
Último día sin manchas:13/11/2017

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12002M7.4
22003M4.5
32003M3.9
42003M3.2
52003M1.8
ApG
1200326G1
2199917
3201515G1
4199614
5199711
*desde 1994