Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2018 Jan 19 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2696 (S13W22, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Pronóstico
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (19-21 Jan).

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Pronóstico
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (19 Jan), and normal levels on days two and three (20-21 Jan) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters increased slightly due to a SSBC followed by the likely beginning of a CIR enhancement. At approximately 18/1705 UTC, a sector boundary change from a positive (away) sector to a negative (towards) sector occurred. After 18/2000 UTC, total field began to increase from 1 nT to 9 nT while the phi angle deflected southward to -6 nT. Solar wind speed increased beginning after 18/2200 UTC from approximately 315 km/s to a maximum of 381 km/s at 19/0326 UTC before decreasing to near 350 km/s by the end of the period.
Pronóstico
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels for day one (19 Jan). A further CIR enhancement and subsequent CH HSS is expected on day two (20 Jan) and persist through day three (21 Jan). Solar wind speeds are expected to be near 550-575 km/s, as observed in STEREO A PLASTIC data.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Pronóstico
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (19 Jan). Day two (20 Jan) is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated periods of active levels due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to dominate on day three (21 Jan) with a chance for isolated active levels due to persisting CH HSS influences.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias

Últimas noticias

Clima espacial de hoy

Actividad auroral Menor Importante
Altas latitudes 25% 25%
Medias latitudes 5% 1%
Kp previsto max 3
Actividad solar
llamarada solar clase M 1%
llamarada solar clase X 1%
Fase de la luna
Creciente casi nueva

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1%

¿Que es alerta de aurora?

Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X:10/09/2017X8.2
Último evento clase M:20/10/2017M1.0
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas:14/01/2018Kp5 (G1)
Número de días sin manchas en el año 2018:6
Último día sin manchas:14/01/2018

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12005X1.3
22005M6.7
32012M3.2
42005M2.7
52010M2.3
ApG
1200560G3
2199425G1
3200418
4200318
5200214
*desde 1994