Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2019 Feb 20 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity was very low with no numbered regions on the visible disk. A filament eruption was noted near N03W06 starting around 20/0401 UTC. Analysis of this event in available imagery suggests the bulk of the material was either re-absorbed or directed off the NE limb. A model run was submitted to rule out an Earth-directed component, and results will become available by the next forecast cycle. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Predicción
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 20-22 Feb.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Predicción
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 20-21 Feb with a chance for high levels on 22 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds averaged around 320 km/s. Total field was less than 5 nT, and the Bz component was unremarkable. Phi angle was mainly oriented in a negative solar sector.
Predicción
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by mid to late day on 20 Feb due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to persist into 21 Feb and slowly wane on 22 Feb. Solar wind speed is likely to be in the 450-500 km/s range based on STEREO A data.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Predicción
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 20-21 Feb due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Feb as HSS effects diminish.

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Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X:10/09/2017X8.2
Último evento clase M:20/10/2017M1.0
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas:31/01/2019Kp5 (G1)
Número de días sin manchas en el año 2019:35
Estrías actual días sin manchas:21

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12002M5.1
22002M4.3
32002M4.2
42002M3.5
52014M3.0
ApG
1201437G2
2201220G1
3200619G1
4200317
5199417G1
*desde 1994

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