Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity remained very low. Region 2731 was mostly plage with a few fleeting pores by the end of the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Predicción
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Dec.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 2,387 pfu at 14/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Predicción
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Dec, and moderate levels on 16 Dec due to weak CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on 17 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Bt was at or below 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive. Solar wind speeds ranged between 300-390 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.
Predicción
Nominal levels are expected for 15 Dec. A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16-17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Predicción
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15 Dec. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are likely on 16-17 Dec due to anticipated, weak CH HSS influence.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias

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Último evento clase X:10/09/2017X8.2
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Último día sin manchas:13/12/2018

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12001C9.4
22001C8.3
32014C7.0
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52002C5.9
ApG
1200694G4
2200325G1
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4201516G1
5201414
*desde 1994

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