Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2018 Oct 16 0030 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar activity remained very low. Region 2725 (S10E32, Axx/alpha) decayed further and nearly dissipated entirely. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (16-18 Oct).

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (16-17 Oct) due to CH HSS influences. Day three (18 Oct) is likely to see a decreased flux from high levels to normal due to CIR arrival ahead of another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from primarily 550-600 km/s. Total IMF strength was predominantly 4 to 5 nT, while the Bz component varied and did not undergo any notable prolonged periods of southward direction. The phi angle was primarily negative.
Solar wind speed is expected to slowly decrease over the next three days (16-18 Oct) as the negative polarity CH HSS rotates further west and away from a geoeffective position. A CIR ahead of an extension of the north polar CH HSS, is anticipate to arrive later on day three causing an enhancement and disturbance in the IMF.


Resumen 24 hr
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to CH HSS effects.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 Oct) due to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences. Day two (17 Oct) is expected to be primarily quiet. Day three (18 Oct) is expected to be quiet most of the day, before becoming unsettled to active in response to CIR arrival.
Actualmente, sobre la base de los datos actuales, no hay posibilidades de ver una aurora en las latitudes medias
La velocidad del viento solar actualmente es moderada (586,6 km/sec.)

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