Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X8 event observed at
10/1606Z from old Region 2673 (S09, L=119). There are currently 3
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Sep) and expected to be
very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (12 Sep) and expected to be very low with a
slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (13 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 10/1015Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/2020Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1038 pfu at 10/1845Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54 pfu at 10/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 7875 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11
Sep), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Sep) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (13 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 10% | 01% |
| Clase X | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 95% | 65% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 100 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 085/083/081 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/007-010/012-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 60% |
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