Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 agosto 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Aug 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 19/2143Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
20/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Aug, 23
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (22 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Aug 078 Previsto 21 Aug-23 Aug 082/082/082 Media de 90 Días 20 Aug 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 009/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 20% |
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