Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 mayo 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1525Z from Region 2544 (N20W27). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 16/0113Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1154Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 15/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1269 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 102 Previsto 17 May-19 May 102/100/100 Media de 90 Días 16 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 012/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 010/012-008/008-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 30% | 50% |
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