Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 mayo 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May,
11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 09/0932Z. Total
IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -8 nT at 08/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16412 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 May 089 Previsto 10 May-12 May 090/090/092 Media de 90 Días 09 May 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 May 032/060 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 May 021/034 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/022-013/014-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 45% | 30% |
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