Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 mayo 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/0842Z from Region 2540 (N22E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 02/1830Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 02/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 090 Previsto 03 May-05 May 095/105/110 Media de 90 Días 02 May 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 016/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 021/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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