Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 diciembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Dec 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 341 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Dec 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0419Z from Region 2465 (S05E58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 711 km/s at 07/1700Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1047Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0649Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3587
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Dec a 10 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Dec 101 Previsto 08 Dec-10 Dec 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 07 Dec 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Dec 026/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Dec 015/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-014/014-014/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Dec a 10 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 40% | 50% |
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