Viendo archivo del domingo, 8 noviembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Nov 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 312 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Nov 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/2321Z from Region 2449 (S12E57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
559 km/s at 08/1645Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/1026Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4276 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Nov 108 Previsto 09 Nov-11 Nov 108/108/110 Media de 90 Días 08 Nov 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 029/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 019/025-014/018-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 30% | 30% |
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