Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 109 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 15% |
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