Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 septiembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Sep 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Sep 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
20/1803Z from Region 2415 (S19W56). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 627 km/s at 20/0711Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 20/0536Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 20/0535Z.
Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level
of 3 pfu at 20/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (23 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Sep 110 Previsto 21 Sep-23 Sep 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 20 Sep 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 012/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 031/044 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 022/020-014/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 35% | 20% |
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