Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1032Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jun,
18 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
633 km/s at 15/0126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1700Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3307 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18
Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 135 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 019/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-009/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 25% | 10% |
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