Viendo archivo del martes, 14 abril 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Apr 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2323Z from Region 2320 (S14W78). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
358 km/s at 14/1432Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1523Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/1523Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17
Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 147 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 012/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 015/020-012/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 45% | 25% |
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