Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 abril 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Apr 08 2150 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 98 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Apr 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2131Z from Region 2320 (S12E02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Apr,
10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
07/2137Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0649Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10
Apr) and quiet levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Apr 106 Previsto 09 Apr-11 Apr 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 08 Apr 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Apr NA/ 005 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 014/020-014/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 50% | 20% |
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