Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 22 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0452Z from Region 2268 (S10E67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan,
25 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
544 km/s at 22/0141Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2248Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2248Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jan 120 Previsto 23 Jan-25 Jan 130/135/130 Media de 90 Días 22 Jan 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 012/015-012/015-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 45% | 60% |
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