Viendo archivo del lunes, 17 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0907Z from Region 2205 (now around the west limb). There are
currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19
Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 17/0331Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1906Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1903Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5723 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Nov a 20 Nov
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Nov 168 Previsto 18 Nov-20 Nov 170/170/170 Media de 90 Días 17 Nov 145
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 018/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 009/010-007/010-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Nov a 20 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 40% |
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