Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
15/2046Z from Region 2209 (S15E45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
630 km/s at 15/0238Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1941Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0021Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Nov,
17 Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 161 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 015/020-011/015-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 40% | 40% |
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