Viendo archivo del martes, 28 octubre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Oct 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 301 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Oct 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/0332Z from Region 2192 (S13W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(31 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
495 km/s at 28/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2112Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2141Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 891 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Oct, 31
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day two (30 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 65% |
| Clase X | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Protón | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Oct 167 Previsto 29 Oct-31 Oct 155/145/135 Media de 90 Días 28 Oct 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Oct 015/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Oct 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/010-012/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Oct a 31 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 40% | 35% |
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