Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 octubre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Oct 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 298 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Oct 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
24/2141Z from Region 2192 (S12W21), followed by an X1/3b at 25/1708 UTC.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27
Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 24/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0516Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1859Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1967 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Oct, 28
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (27 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Oct), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (27 Oct) and have a chance of crossing
threshold on day three (28 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Oct a 28 Oct
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Protón | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Oct 219 Previsto 26 Oct-28 Oct 220/220/220 Media de 90 Días 25 Oct 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Oct 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/010-011/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Oct a 28 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 25% |
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