Viendo archivo del jueves, 25 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 268 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/2342Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 25/0342Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0233Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0245Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27
Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Sep 158 Previsto 26 Sep-28 Sep 165/165/165 Media de 90 Días 25 Sep 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 019/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Sep 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 010/012-011/015-011/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Sep a 28 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 50% | 50% |
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