Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0216Z from Region 2157 (S15W63). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (17 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at
14/0101Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/2127Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/1536Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 139 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 138/135/130 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-008/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 25% |
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