Viendo archivo del martes, 9 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 252 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M4 event observed at
09/0029Z from Region 2158 (N15E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11
Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 09/0344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2115Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2033Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
08/2155Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (11 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (12 Sep).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Sep 159 Previsto 10 Sep-12 Sep 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 09 Sep 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-006/005-021/032
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Sep a 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 45% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 79% |
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