Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 06 2320 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08
Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 286 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09
Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Sep 157 Previsto 07 Sep-09 Sep 160/158/155 Media de 90 Días 06 Sep 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Sep 011/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 015/018-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 15% |
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