Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 mayo 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 May 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 142 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 May 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
22/0310Z from Region 2072 (S18W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May,
24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
375 km/s at 22/1139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1537Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 May a 25 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 May 111 Previsto 23 May-25 May 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 22 May 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 May 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 May 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 May a 25 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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