Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 abril 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Apr 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Apr 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/0813Z from Region 2033 (N11W84). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (21 Apr) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 765 km/s at 20/1125Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 20/1114Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1752Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 51
pfu at 19/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 237 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (23
Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Apr a 23 Apr
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Apr 163 Previsto 21 Apr-23 Apr 165/160/150 Media de 90 Días 20 Apr 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Apr 013/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Apr 016/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 016/020-009/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Apr a 23 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 30% | 25% |
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