Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 abril 2014

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 109 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Apr 2014

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/1932Z from Region 2032 (N12W83). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 19/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 19/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (20 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Apr). Protons are expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold on days one and two (20-21 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Apr a 22 Apr
Clase M55%50%50%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón99%75%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Apr 169
  Previsto   20 Apr-22 Apr 170/170/160
  Media de 90 Días        19 Apr 156

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  014/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  022/035-021/025-009/010

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Apr a 22 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%35%
Tormenta Menor40%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%10%
Tormenta Menor15%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa75%75%50%

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