Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 abril 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1959Z from Region 2035 (S17E11). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
15/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1953Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 454 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 184 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 190/190/190 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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