Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 marzo 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Mar 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 89 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Mar 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1155Z from Region 2017 (N10W49). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 30/0434Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2220Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/2121Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at
29/2230Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Apr).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Mar a 02 Apr
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Mar 148 Previsto 31 Mar-02 Apr 145/145/140 Media de 90 Días 30 Mar 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Mar 009/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 006/005-010/012-020/028
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Mar a 02 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 35% | 60% |
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