Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 58 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01
Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58
pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Feb a 02 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Feb 176 Previsto 28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170 Media de 90 Días 27 Feb 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 011/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 019/025-009/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Feb a 02 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 25% | 05% |
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